Midterms Looking Bleaker for Democrats: Districts Biden Won by 10+ Points in Play
The midterm elections in the House of Representatives are looking even worse for Democrats as November draws nearer.
The Democratic Party currently has a slim 220 to 208 seat advantage in the chamber.
The Cook Political Report just revised its House elections forecast, shifting 10 races into the Republicans’ column and moving just two to the Democrats’ side.
Further, 35 seats now held by Democrats are rated tossup or worse.
A total of 208 seats are in the “lean red” to “solid red” categories versus 188 Democrat-held ones on the left of the spectrum.
Cook is predicting Republicans wills gain 20 to 35 seats, meaning they would retake the House.
NEW: The midterm outlook for House Dems is so bleak that even members in districts Biden won by 10 to 15 points are in danger of losing their seats, per the Cook Political Report. https://t.co/kpjqbRKGcB pic.twitter.com/ZrbhZwlkT1
— Axios (@axios) May 29, 2022
“Given that President Biden’s job approval is underwater in dozens of districts he carried in 2020, any Democrat sitting in a single-digit Biden seat (or a Trump seat) is at severe risk and even a few in seats Biden carried by 10 to 15 points could lose — particularly in ‘orphan’ states without competitive statewide races driving turnout,” Cook reported.
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Generic ballot polling also spells trouble for Democrats.
Republicans currently enjoy a 1.9 percent advantage in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
This may not seem too impressive, but Democrats are generally ahead.
David Winston, writing for Roll Call, crunched some numbers earlier this month comparing where the Republicans stood going into the 2010 red wave midterm elections compared to where they stand now.
In those elections conducted while Barack Obama was president, Republicans picked up 63 seats ending up with a 242 to 193 advantage over Democrats.
“In 2010, by this point in the election year, voters’ confidence in Obama’s handling of the economy, the No. 1 issue, was heading south as voters said they had more confidence in Republicans to handle the economy by 5 points,” wrote Winston.
The Gross Domestic Product growth slowed in the second quarter of 2010 as the nation sought to emerge from the great recession.
A recent survey found that President Joe Biden is in a worse place with the voters now regarding the economy, as the GDP shrank 1.4 percent during the first quarter of this year.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted late last month showed Republicans have a 14-point lead — 50 to 36 percent — in handling the economy with inflation a top issue.
Short of some major turn-around, Democrats will lose the House this fall — and likely by big numbers.
