GOP Takes Lead Going Into Midterms, Matches '94 In Key Measure of Support
The Republican Party has taken the lead in the generic congressional ballot with early voting set to begin in many states.
Additionally, the GOP enjoyed its highest level of support regarding the party best able to keep the country prosperous since 1994, the year it took control of both chambers of Congress in a wave election.
A Monmouth University Poll released Monday found that the GOP reversed positions with Democrats from August.
A combined 47 percent of those surveyed either want Republicans to take control of Congress or lean that way, while 44 percent prefer Democrats maintain control.
“The combined 47 percent who choose Republican control is up from 43 percent in August, while the 44 percent support level for Democratic control is down from 50 percent,” Monmouth reported.
NATIONAL POLL: Which party do Americans want in control of Congress?
36% GOP
11% not matter, but lean GOP
34% DEM
10% not matter, but lean DEM
8% not matter, no leanhttps://t.co/YXPw36C53D pic.twitter.com/rseBJ1lYCf— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) October 3, 2022
The top issue for respondents was inflation with 82 percent saying it’s extremely or very important to them. The next was crime (72 percent), elections and voting (70 percent), jobs/unemployment (68 percent) and immigration (67 percent).
Abortion, which many Democrat candidates have emphasized in their campaigns, registered as an extremely or very important issue with 56 percent of those surveyed.
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“When asked which group of issues is more important in their support for Congress this year, concerns about the economy and cost of living (54 percent) outpace concerns about fundamental rights and democratic processes (38 percent) among all Americans,” according to Monmouth.
“Republicans prioritize the economy (71 percent), while Democrats prioritize rights (67 percent). Independents are more likely to give preference to economic issues (61 percent) than concerns about rights and democracy (29 percent),” the polling firm added.
Only 38 percent of respondents said they approve of President Joe Biden’s job performance, while 54 percent disapprove.
Historically when the president’s approval rating has dropped below 50 percent, his party has consistently, going back decades, faced a blowout in the House of Representatives in the midterms, which included a loss of control of the chamber.
The Monmouth poll was conducted by phone from Sept. 21 to 25 with 806 American adults. The margin of error was +/- 3.5 percent.
A new Gallup poll found that Americans — by a 10 percentage point margin (51 to 41 percent) — think Republicans would do a better job keeping the country prosperous.
That is the largest lead for the GOP since September 1994.
GALLUP POLL: Which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country Prosperous?
Republicans 51% (+10)
Democrats 41%2022: R+10 (largest GOP lead since 1994)
2020: D+1
2018: R+5
2014: R+9
2012: D+9
2010: R+8
2008: D+13
2006: D+17https://t.co/ByQvQOkNnn pic.twitter.com/ATBmXDChEr— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 4, 2022
The Gallup survey was conducted by phone from Sept. 1-16 with 812 U.S. adults. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.
In the ’94 midterms, Republicans gained 54 seats to win the House and took control of the Senate, marking the first time the party had held both chambers since the 1950s.
The Fox News “power rankings” currently have Republicans retaking the House 231 to 204, as the Senate remains a toss-up, though key races in the upper chamber have been trending in the GOP’s favor.
That House majority would be almost identical to the Republican majority following the 1994 election, when the party won 230 seats.
